ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - Heavy floods are expected in mountain ranges of Himalaya, Hindu Kush, and Pamir again this year.
Possible affected countries include China, Northern India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan, as well as northern parts of Afghanistan.
An unusual meteorological system has been creating havoc with these areas for the last two consecutive years. Pakistan, India, and China faced its worst kinds of floods during year 2010 and again in year 2011. This unusual meteorological system is again developing with an expansion towards Central Asia and is expected to hit Tajikistan also.
The Meteorological Department of Pakistan has warned that such a system is again developing over Pamir knot and the Himalayas. In South Asia, seasonal winds blow from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea in the southwest, bringing heavy rainfall to the area during summer, and this system is called the Monsoon. The term was first used in English in British India (now India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan) and neighboring countries to refer to the big seasonal winds blowing from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea in the southwest, bringing heavy rainfall to the area.
These winds carry hot clouds full of moisture. However, amazingly cold clouds are crossing over the lofty Himalayas and Pamir, entering into the hot areas of South Asia, and colliding with hot and heavily wet clouds coming from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea, resulting in cloud bursting and causing heavy floods for the last two years. Monsoon clouds historically do not cross over the Himalayas and enter into cold areas of Pamir and over the Himalayas, but for the last two years, it has been happening, therefore, cloud bursting is being observed over Pamir knot, as well as over the Himalayan side of China, and the upper northern parts of Afghanistan, and the northern areas of Pakistan, Indian Punjab, and India Himachal Pradesh.
Floods in the year 2010 played havoc in Pakistan causing 1,750 human deaths along with deaths of approximately 1.20 million livestock. As many as 2,710 people were seriously injured. Over 2 million homes were destroyed, rendering over 7.5 million people displaced. The country has suffered $4-6 billion worth of damage to infrastructure, livestock, and crops.
Displacement of 20 million in 2011 floods in Pakistan was the biggest number of population displacement in reference to floods in the history of mankind according to UN agencies.
This year, Tajikistan government has already released flood warnings and Information and Analytical Center (IAC) at the Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense, noting that the risk of mudslides and flooding remains high on the Panj river (in the middle reaches and the lower reaches), Vakhsh, Kafirnigan, Varzob, and Shirkent Karatag. It is noted that the level of flood risk rises after heavy rains fall during the high temperatures. Unusually high temperatures cause rapid melting of snow in the mountains.
Hydrometeorological Centre of Tajikistan reported that between June 22 to
25 in the country, it is expected that unstable weather will bring intermittent rain, thunderstorms, and possibly even hail. At the same time, in some areas, rainfall is also expected to be very strong, with mudflows. There is risk that this trend will continue during July also.
According to the monthly report, "Monitoring and early warning in Tajikistan," in May of this year, the country has seen 45 natural disasters, including one case of thunderstorms with strong wind gusts, resulting in 2 people injured; 3 cases of loss due to heavy rains; 7 major earthquakes; 1 case of an avalanche, 5 landslides, and 1 case of a breach vodosbrosnika. Also registered were 11 floods and 16 cases of rain and hail, rain and hail that caused mudslides, rain and hail that caused mudslides and floods, and rain floods and landslides.
Experts say that despite the heavy rains that fell above the norm in the first 5 months of 2012 and caused flooding, mudslides, avalanches, and other related phenomena, such weather since the end of 2011 contributed to the revival of pastures, increased inflow of surface water, and improving production of winter wheat and the seeding of spring crops.